- Professor of Real Estate Finance
Ozyegin University Istanbul-Turkey
- Professor of Real Estate Financeedit
To date, quantitative analysis on the depth of mortgage markets across a broad set of countries has been very limited. This paper uses a rich and balanced data set on 31 European countries to investigate the crosscountry variations in the... more
To date, quantitative analysis on the depth of mortgage markets across a broad set of countries has been very limited. This paper uses a rich and balanced data set on 31 European countries to investigate the crosscountry variations in the depth of mortgage markets during the period 2005–2012. The present paper might be accepted as the updated and enriched version of existing research for the European region in terms of the coverage of countries, historical data and the empirical analyses. Our empirical findings reveal that developed countries have sizeable residential mortgage markets and this is mainly associated with higher urbanization rates and stronger legal rights. One of the most notable results of this study is that, statistical significance of explanatory variables in modeling the depth of the mortgage markets depends heavily on both the variables, countries (regions) included in the models and the regression methodology used. Hence, we argue that strong conclusions based on such analyses should be avoided and the findings of previous research on the variations of the depth of mortgage markets should be carefully evaluated.
Research Interests:
Location decision and standards of shopping malls keep relevancy at a standstill position in the planning agenda of Turkey when considered the increasing numbers of construction even though the economic crisis in the World. By the end... more
Location decision and standards of shopping malls keep relevancy at a
standstill position in the planning agenda of Turkey when considered the
increasing numbers of construction even though the economic crisis in the
World. By the end of June 2014, the number of shopping malls has reached
to 412 (including under construction) and the total gross leasable area to
10.8 million m2 (AARREC, 2015). While there are many regulations and
planning legislative frameworks related to the classification and standards
of shopping malls around the world, such development has just began to
form in Turkey. Although some regulations for planning the retail spaces
have existed since the 1960s, many of them lacked both international
standards and a national classification schema that fits for Turkey’s unique
market demands.
This research attempts to fulfill a part in understanding the historical
journey of shopping malls in Turkey with reference to the cases of Europe,
Asia and America. The literature review aims to explore the variations
in standards and classification schemas among different geographies
in time. Based on the literature review, secondly, the research aims to
shed light on the current legislative framework in Turkey with regard
to planning, design and classification of shopping malls. To this end;
three laws and seven regulations have been analyzed through a set of
six parameters derived from literature review. These parameters are:
definitions and standards, location decisions, protection of ecological
environment, transportation and parking, hierarchy between the plans
and legend categories of plans. Results indicate that recent legislative
framework of Turkey cannot fully address a unique, sustainable and
national classification schema for shopping malls. The framework also
fail in defining the location decision parameters. Whilst, the new law for
shopping malls attempts to regulate and address the need for parking lots
comprehensively. On the other hand the same law neglects the hierarchy of
plans and needs to be improved.
standstill position in the planning agenda of Turkey when considered the
increasing numbers of construction even though the economic crisis in the
World. By the end of June 2014, the number of shopping malls has reached
to 412 (including under construction) and the total gross leasable area to
10.8 million m2 (AARREC, 2015). While there are many regulations and
planning legislative frameworks related to the classification and standards
of shopping malls around the world, such development has just began to
form in Turkey. Although some regulations for planning the retail spaces
have existed since the 1960s, many of them lacked both international
standards and a national classification schema that fits for Turkey’s unique
market demands.
This research attempts to fulfill a part in understanding the historical
journey of shopping malls in Turkey with reference to the cases of Europe,
Asia and America. The literature review aims to explore the variations
in standards and classification schemas among different geographies
in time. Based on the literature review, secondly, the research aims to
shed light on the current legislative framework in Turkey with regard
to planning, design and classification of shopping malls. To this end;
three laws and seven regulations have been analyzed through a set of
six parameters derived from literature review. These parameters are:
definitions and standards, location decisions, protection of ecological
environment, transportation and parking, hierarchy between the plans
and legend categories of plans. Results indicate that recent legislative
framework of Turkey cannot fully address a unique, sustainable and
national classification schema for shopping malls. The framework also
fail in defining the location decision parameters. Whilst, the new law for
shopping malls attempts to regulate and address the need for parking lots
comprehensively. On the other hand the same law neglects the hierarchy of
plans and needs to be improved.
Research Interests:
This paper investigates the macroeconomic sources of time-varying risk premia in Turkish REIT industry within the arbitrage pricing theory framework. Turkish REIT industry differs substantially from the global REIT market as Turkish REITs... more
This paper investigates the macroeconomic sources of time-varying risk premia in Turkish REIT industry within the arbitrage pricing theory framework. Turkish REIT industry differs substantially from the global REIT market as Turkish REITs do not have to pay out dividends, yet enjoy the exemption from paying corporate taxes, and have highly concentrated ownership structure. These fundamental differences have significant impacts on the performance of REITs compared to other stocks listed on Borsa Istanbul (BIST), especially in terms of the inflationhedging
characteristics and time-varying systematic risk behaviour. This article evaluates the Turkish REIT industry by using a time-varying multifactor model, which compares the REIT
industry excess returns with various macroeconomic factors, including GDP growth, industrial production growth, inflation risk premium, and stock market risk premium. Our results provide the evidence of time-varying linkages among macroeconomic risks and the conditional first and second moments of excess returns on REITs. We find that among the macroeconomic factors, inflation risk appears to be the major concern in REIT investment. Additionally, Turkish REITs behave more like stocks than real estate. The documented perverse inflation hedges of REITs, the positive correlation between REIT returns and volatility of real economic activity,
and the significant influence of ISE equity risk premium on REIT returns can be quoted as the indications of deviation of REITs’ performance from real estate performance. If REITs behave more like stocks than real estate, the diversification benefits of having REITs in a multi-asset portfolio is seriously reduced.
characteristics and time-varying systematic risk behaviour. This article evaluates the Turkish REIT industry by using a time-varying multifactor model, which compares the REIT
industry excess returns with various macroeconomic factors, including GDP growth, industrial production growth, inflation risk premium, and stock market risk premium. Our results provide the evidence of time-varying linkages among macroeconomic risks and the conditional first and second moments of excess returns on REITs. We find that among the macroeconomic factors, inflation risk appears to be the major concern in REIT investment. Additionally, Turkish REITs behave more like stocks than real estate. The documented perverse inflation hedges of REITs, the positive correlation between REIT returns and volatility of real economic activity,
and the significant influence of ISE equity risk premium on REIT returns can be quoted as the indications of deviation of REITs’ performance from real estate performance. If REITs behave more like stocks than real estate, the diversification benefits of having REITs in a multi-asset portfolio is seriously reduced.
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
This paper adopts the methodology in Bali and Cakici (2008) in tracking the evolution of the relation between REITs’ idiosyncratic risk and their cross-sectional expected returns between 1981 and 2010. In addition to the full sample... more
This paper adopts the methodology in Bali and Cakici (2008) in tracking the evolution of the relation between REITs’ idiosyncratic risk and their cross-sectional expected returns between 1981 and 2010. In addition to the full sample period, we study this relation for (i) January 1981-December 1992, (ii) January 1993-September 31, 2001, (iii) November 2001-August 2008 and (iv) November 2001-December 2010 and produce empirical results for (i) all sample REITs, (ii) REITs with a price greater than $10 and (iii) REITs with a price greater than $5. Each period represents different dynamics (including GFC) in the life of the REIT industry and leads to a different hypothesis. Further, we present comparative results based on the Fama-French 3- and 4-factor models. Overall, we document a negative relation between idiosyncratic risk and cross-sectional expected returns and demonstrate that the root cause of this negative relation changes over time. Interestingly, REITs with a price of $5-to-$10 do well in 2009 and 2010. Further, the momentum factor appears to be influential since the first-ever listing of a REIT in the S&P 500 Index in early October 2001.
Research Interests:
Abstract: For some two millennia Istanbul has been one of the world’s greatest cities, and is today classified as an “Alpha-“ world city in the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) group’s 2010 rankings. Istanbul is an emerging global... more
Abstract: For some two millennia Istanbul has been one of the world’s greatest cities, and is
today classified as an “Alpha-“ world city in the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) group’s 2010 rankings. Istanbul is an emerging global city that is facilitating Turkey’s transnational integration into the global economy, and as of June 2009 the city had the second largest office stock among all Southeast European countries. This paper investigates the determinants of office rent levels in the city’s Central Business District (CBD) and the spatial variation of rents in a polycentric metropolis. The paper uses a stepwise regression and a Mamdani-type fuzzy rule–based model to estimate office space rents, and compares empirical results with those of a conventional OLS regression analysis. Rents are driven not only by physical characteristics and locational services, but also the terms of lease contracts. New CBD locations that command the highest rents on spacious, high-rise office spaces with comparatively few employees conform well with contemporary accounts of world-city financial districts, and confirm the significance of urban office infrastructures for globally oriented financial elites beyond the familiar roster of Global North world cities. The traditional center retains the core purpose identified nearly a century ago, in Marshall’s analysis of centralization during the most vibrant period of the industrial age. Despite all the transformations of transnational urbanist polycentricity, the traditional CBD is still the place with the most diverse mix of activities, and the greatest variation in rents.
[Key words: real estate appraisal, determinants of office rents, Istanbul office market, polycentric urban form, Mamdani-type fuzzy rule–based models.]
today classified as an “Alpha-“ world city in the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) group’s 2010 rankings. Istanbul is an emerging global city that is facilitating Turkey’s transnational integration into the global economy, and as of June 2009 the city had the second largest office stock among all Southeast European countries. This paper investigates the determinants of office rent levels in the city’s Central Business District (CBD) and the spatial variation of rents in a polycentric metropolis. The paper uses a stepwise regression and a Mamdani-type fuzzy rule–based model to estimate office space rents, and compares empirical results with those of a conventional OLS regression analysis. Rents are driven not only by physical characteristics and locational services, but also the terms of lease contracts. New CBD locations that command the highest rents on spacious, high-rise office spaces with comparatively few employees conform well with contemporary accounts of world-city financial districts, and confirm the significance of urban office infrastructures for globally oriented financial elites beyond the familiar roster of Global North world cities. The traditional center retains the core purpose identified nearly a century ago, in Marshall’s analysis of centralization during the most vibrant period of the industrial age. Despite all the transformations of transnational urbanist polycentricity, the traditional CBD is still the place with the most diverse mix of activities, and the greatest variation in rents.
[Key words: real estate appraisal, determinants of office rents, Istanbul office market, polycentric urban form, Mamdani-type fuzzy rule–based models.]